Toronto Real Estate Pulse March 2021
Monday Mar 15th, 2021
Toronto results continue their climb upward. Overall, Feb 2021 vs. Feb 2020 sales increased by +53% with all but 2 of TRREB’s 65 zones posting year-over-year gains. While all property types were up by at least 40%+ (detached, semi-detached, townhomes, condos), condominiums led the way with an increase of +64%.
With respect to average price, the overall TRREB average price exceeded $1,000,000 for the first time ever, up +15% from Feb 2020. However, the increase in average price varied significantly based on property type (i.e., Condos down -3.7% // Detached up +23.1%) and TRREB Zone (i.e., “416 Condos” down -6.4% // “905 Condos” up +5.4% // “416 Detached” up +13.2% // “905 Detached” up +27.8%).
416 Condo Recovery Almost Complete
Condo active listings ended Feb 2021 with 1,911 units available which was up +52% from the end of Feb 2020 (1,256 units). While the +52% year-over-year number sounds high, this has dropped significantly from the year-over-year figures of +194% in Nov, +172% in Dec, and +89% in Jan 2021. Furthermore, the Feb 2021 active listing count has dropped below the 10-year average for February and is only about 15% higher than the 3yr & 5yr averages. All these signals point to an almost fully recovered “416” condo market. Expect average prices to start showing year-over-year gains as early as next month which should pick up pace as the year progresses.
Detached Active Listings Remain Scarce
A record number of multiple offers are becoming the norm across TRREB as detached inventory remains scarce. While we would typically expect to see a wave of new listings released in mid/late March, that may not be the case this year, as sellers felt no reason to hold back on planned listings given a rapidly increasing market. Given heightened demand/pace of sales, active listings are down significantly as at the end of Feb 2021 vs. end of Feb 2020:
Halton (down -44%): 399 vs. 715
Simcoe (down -41%): 236 vs. 397
Durham (down -29%): 577 vs. 817
York (down -19%): 1,306 vs. 1,619
Peel (down -14%): 769 vs. 891
“416” Zones (down -14%): 938 vs. 1,088
Given the lack of supply, expect sustained upward pressure on average prices across the board subject to any major “shock” factors. While no one has a crystal ball, examples of items that could slow the rally include: sustained upward movement on interest rates, government intervention/regulation to slow the market, stalling economic indicators/employment/growth trajectory, etc.
Rental Market Ready to Bounce Back
Rental rates in the city continued to reach their bottom over the last month, but are expected to begin rising in the months ahead, especially as vaccinations are ramped up, the economy reopens, and the borders eventually re-open. While rental rates in the city remain low, competition is beginning to increase among applicants.
See below for updated market reports, including Q4 data for the commercial market.
In February the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board released their annual Market Year in Review & Outlook Report. This report is an excellent source of information on the real estate market and expectations for 2021.
Market Watch Report (February 2021)
Home Price Index Report (February 2021)
Rental Market Report (Q4 2020)
Condo Market Report (Q4 2020)
Commercial Realty Watch (Q4 2020)
Bank of Canada Release (March 10, 2021)
Residential Mortgage Rates
Residential Mortgage Rate Charts
Mortgage Calculator & Mortgage Affordability
Commercial Mortgage Rates - Contact me
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GTA new home sales strong in January (BILD)
Economy on track for ‘very strong’ bounce in late 2021 (RENX)
Toronto home sales break record in February as condo market storms back (Livabl)
Population growth uptick sets stage for 2021 condo market rebound (Livabl)