Toronto Real Estate Pulse April 2021
Thursday Apr 15th, 2021
We find ourselves in yet another province-wide lockdown. Real estate remains an essential service, so if you need to buy, sell, or rent during this time it is still possible.
Sales have continued to climb at a record pace. Overall, March 2021 vs March 2020 sales increased by +97% (“416 Zones” +86% / “905 Zones” +103%) with all 65 TRREB zones posting year-over-year gains - ranging from +32% to +230%.
Caution - we need to be careful when comparing 2021 vs. 2020 given the “COVID market pause” experienced from the second half of March 2020 through May 2020. So how did March 2021 compare to the years prior to 2020? March 2021 sales surpassed the previous record (March 2017) by a wide margin - and we had nearly double the transactions vs. March 2018, March 2019, and March 2020 in both the “416” and “905” zones.
Year-to-date sales were also up significantly with Q1/2021 ending +70% vs. Q1/2020 (33,503 sales vs. 19,680 sales). Q1/2021 sales were also more than the Q1/2018 AND Q1/2019 sales combined. Given the historically high activity, resources will be stretched for inspectors, appraisers, lenders, and lawyers as the huge number of sales progress towards their closing dates.
Overall, TRREB average price across all property types/territories exceeded $1,000,000 for the second month in a row. March 2021 average price came in at $1,097,565 up 21.6% vs. March 2020 ($902,787).
Based on the March 2021 average price, this represented a March over March 3yr growth rate of 11.8% per year, 5-year growth rate of 9.8% per year, and 10-year growth rate of 9.2% per year.
Condo average prices bottomed out in December 2020 and have joined other property types in the upward trajectory. The same can now also be said for the Toronto rental market as supply is absorbed and competition intensifies.
Where do things go from here? Unless we see a government surprise in the upcoming budget, or the recent lockdowns get worse, we likely have many months of upward momentum to come (and no, the proposed OSFI change will do much to slow the market). As the vaccine continues to be deployed over the course of 2021, expect to see a slow transition where the fastest-growing markets in 2020 begin to level out, and some of the lagging areas (condos) begin to pick up momentum.
With respect to available/active listings on the market as of March 31, 2021, detached properties remain scarce vs. March 31, 2020 and condos are closing in on their 5yr average which will keep upward pressure on prices given the current level of demand. Specifically:
“416 Detached” Active Listings: -5% vs. Mar. 2020 / -12% vs. the 5yr Mar. avg
“905 Detached” Active Listings: -22% vs. Mar. 2020 / -28% vs. the 5yr Mar. avg
“416 Condos” Active Listings: +27% vs. Mar. 2020 / +13% vs. the 5yr Mar. avg
(Note: 416 condo active listings are down significantly from their peak of +194% active listings in Nov 2020 vs. Nov 2019)
“905 Condos” Active Listings: +15% vs. Mar. 2020 / -7% vs. the 5yr Mar. avg
(Note: 905 condos active listings are down significantly from their peak of +136% active listings in Nov 2020 vs. Nov 2019)
In February the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board released their annual Market Year in Review & Outlook Report. This report is an excellent source of information on the real estate market and expectations for 2021.
Market Watch Report (March 2021)
Home Price Index Report (March 2021)
Rental Market Report (Q4 2020)
Condo Market Report (Q4 2020)
Commercial Realty Watch (Q4 2020)
Bank of Canada Release (March 10, 2021)
Residential Mortgage Rates
Residential Mortgage Rate Charts
Mortgage Calculator & Mortgage Affordability
Commercial Mortgage Rates - Contact me
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